2013 Monaco Grand Prix

An unsatisfactory race on several counts.  Too many crashes, which made the race scrappy and fragmented. It goes without saying that the "the tyre situation" once again reared its head, and the effects were felt particularly acutely in the early stages.  At least there was no shortage of talking points!

Nico Rosberg looked to have the legs of everyone else for the bulk of the weekend.  On paper, it looked like the impediments which have afflicted Mercedes' race form in recent times would be less pronounced in the principality, and so it proved, even allowing for some reservations expressed by the drivers.

The one mystery in the race was the mediocre showing of Fernando Alonso, who if anything seemed to go backwards as things progressed. I for one had expected his nous and solidity to show through here, but it was not to be, and it has to go down as a missed opportunity.

Whilst some of the established runners were encountering misfortune, others were performing above themselves.  A superb drive by Adrian Sutil, his most convincing since he returned to Formula 1, a reminder of his capabilities, and another building block in his bid for recognition.  Drives tend to be noticed more at Monaco than at most other venues. Jean-Eric Vergne's eighth-place finish was also a fine achievement. 

McLaren were unexpectedly visible and prominent in the race, even allowing for their mildly encouraging practice. Sergio Perez caused a few ructions with his tactics, but at least showed some fire.  The sixth place notched up by Jenson Button is very welcome, but is unlikely to fool too many people at McLaren. 

A mundane, uneventful and smooth weekend for Romain Grosjean!.  It was like 2012 all over again.  His raw talent is not in the slightest doubt, but a nice anonymous but productive weekend in Montreal would not go amiss. With luck this latest penalty might concentrate his mind. When we also consider Raikkonen's problems late in the race, one hopes that Monaco does not signal some kind of downturn in fortunes for Lotus. 

Reading form from here on in is tricky.  It seems reasonable to assume that Red Bull are not going to crumble or weaken appreciably.  The growing strength and confidence of Mercedes, if it can be sustained, is the new factor in the equation. In fact Sebastian Vettel, with a nice little points cushion, will possibly secretly welcome this trend, as it is likely to deprive Ferrari and Lotus of points in their efforts to close the gap. 

2013 Bahrain Grand Prix

A clear and fairly resounding victory for Sebastian Vettel, of the type which we seldom witness in this current era of Grand Prix racing.  The margin will have given food for thought for Red Bull's rivals, even if the Sakhir circuit could be tentatively described as a track which suits the Red Bull's characteristics. A marker has definitely been laid down as we enter the European leg of the championship chase.

Although the race for first position lacked genuine tension for the bulk of the contest, much of interest occurred in the chasing pack. Mercedes once again failed to convert promise into genuine success, although in fairness this possibility had been flagged by the pole-sitter Nico Rosberg.  His team-mate Lewis Hamilton had a largely anonymous race, even taking into account his grid penalty.  The team might not yet be the finished article, but the progress and momentum are in a positive direction.

In terms of competitiveness, Bahrain must have represented a boost of sorts for the McLaren team, but this heartening showing may be overshadowed, in media circles at least, by the friction which developed during the race when Jenson Button and Sergio Perez got a little too close for comfort. It is also tempting to argue however, that in some respects, the fact that the two drivers were in such close proximity to each other is a good sign. Would the team rather have this sort of disagreement to iron out, than see the two vehicles touring around blandly and inoffensively in midfield?

It will be interesting to see whether's Perez's improved form unlocks his undoubted potential, and instill added belief. Team politics may become a headache, but the team must also realise that an on-form and motivated Perez is a major asset.  I was also impressed by the young Mexican's mature and constructive remarks after the race, when quizzed about the brush with his team-mate.

If Button imagined that he was the undisputed de facto number one driver in the team, he may be forced to revise his opinion.  I cannot honestly see the usually unflappable Jenson becoming unduly rattled by all this, but the psychology will add an important dimension to proceedings.

The Ferrari team was remaining sanguine in the wake of the race, and with good reason.  Although fortune was not on their side today, the portents still look very favourable. Before problems intervened, the cars were handily positioned.  Once his technical dramas were remedied, Fernando Alonso predictably put up a classy and stout performance, and the Italian marque can look forward to the rest of the reason with optimism and confidence.

Another team still on an upward curve is Lotus, as shown by their occupation of two of the steps on the podium. Perhaps the most significant thing to emerge was the "rebirth" of Romain Grosjean. the man often derided as  the enfant terrible of Formula 1.  This performance was a reminder of his crisp and incisive drives of 2012, which were of course interspersed with various indiscretions.  If Grosjean can "kick on", so to speak, it will have ramifications for his team and his team-mate, and could even conceivably influence the outcome of the championship, with another "wild card" in a competitive machine taking points off the other contenders.  Others have successfully recovered from early-career setbacks and stigmas.  Let us hope that Grosjean has the strength of character to achieve similar.  This podium finish may constitute a launchpad in this regard.

So we now enter the European phase of the campaign.  Red Bull, or at least the one conducted by Vettel, may be in the ascendancy, but last season taught us not to take anything for granted!

2012 Korean Grand Prix Review

In the aftermath of this morning's race at Yeongam, it felt to me like a pall of cold reality was hanging over many Formula 1 followers.  Not only did we see a relatively mundane contest, but the realisation has started to dawn that Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull have assumed a momentum which, although not irreversible, will definitely take some arresting.

As some had anticipated, Vettel asserted control right from the start of the race, and that was that.  Although Fernando Alonso sporadically threatened to place himself between the two Red Bulls, in the end Vettel and Webber were reasonably comfortable.  The Red Bulls were visually very stable and efficient, and the writing is very much on the wall  for their competitors.  There was an air of serenity about Vettel, and other Red Bull people, afterwards.  The glum expressions on the faces of some rival teams displayed the flip-side of this.

It has to be admitted that McLaren endured a miserable Grand Prix, but it should be pointed out that after practice and qualifying the team appeared cautiously bullish, if not exactly ecstatic, about their prospective race pace.  In the event, this pace was not permitted to reveal itself, as Jenson Button was eliminated at the start, and Lewis Hamilton was afflicted by mechanical maladies. This all had a detrimental effect on Hamilton's and McLaren's position in the points standings.  The titles may be out of reach, but there are still potential race wins to be fought for in the closing four events, assuming reliability of course!.

Ferrari was another team which emitted vaguely positive vibes about its performance in race trim, and they at least partly delivered on this, even if they ultimately could not quite live with the redoubtable Red Bulls.  Fernando Alonso, as is usual, extracted the maximum possible from the machinery at his disposal, but must now realise that he is playing catch-up, having been protecting his points lead in previous races.  Felipe Massa once again showed his mettle, and today's display probably secured his 2013 berth with the team, that is assuming that the decision to retain his services had not already been made.

Kimi Raikkonen is third in the championship standings, but the upgrades to the car unsurprisingly did not represent any kind of quantum leap. The changes seem merely to have allowed Lotus to hold station, and prevent the "big three" from disappearing further over the horizon. One positive aspect for the team was the relatively inconspicuous outing enjoyed by Romain Grosjean. He largely kept away from trouble, and after the race seemed happier than of late.  He will be even more buoyant if, as seems increasingly probable, he is kept on for next season.

Nico Hulkenberg attained another solid result in his quiet, unobtrusive but proficient style.  Possibilities of seats at the very top teams seem to be blocked for the time being, and maybe Hulkenberg is just too "unglamorous" and unassuming for his own good in this respect.  However, the indications are that he will find himself in a Sauber for next season, and this should constitute a useful stepping stone.

So, with three consecutive victories, Vettel must now be considered favourite to clinch another title.  This season's fluctuations have taught us not to take anything for granted, but the recent surge by Red Bull has the stamp of permanence and authority about it.  One can also discern a creeping, if not irrevocable, demolarization amongst the other participants.

We know that Fernando Alonso is capable of great things, and of at least partially compensating for a technical performance shortfall, but even he and his team may prove incapable of turning the tide on this occasion.  We shall soon discover whether Ferrari have anything else up their sleeves, or any more aces to play.  Otherwise, they will be relying on mistakes or misfortune befalling Red Bull.

The Indian Grand Prix should provide us with some of the answers....

2012 Japanese Grand Prix Review

Not in itself the most pulsating exciting or entertaining race at Suzuka today, if we are being honest, but one which generated numerous talking points, and which tightened the drivers' championship points race considerably.

Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel were presented with an "open goal" by the lap 1 exit of Fernando Alonso and the comparatively lowly grid position of the two McLarens.  Further aided by a buffer comprising some non-title-contenders, Vettel did not squander his opportunity.

What will have felt ominous for the rest of the field was the degree of comfort enjoyed by Vettel in achieving his victory, on such a technical and challenging circuit, which tests many qualities in a car.  The first back-to-back wins for any driver in 2012.  There were even whispers that the Red Bull's straightline speed, hitherto a shortcoming, had been improved.

The body language and facial expressions of Red Bull personnel, including the winner, after the race were very significant. They can sense that matters may be shifting gradually but inexorably in their direction, and there was less of the equivocation exhibited at previous races.  There must now be an increasing sense of foreboding amongst Red Bull's rivals concerning the remaining meetings.

The Ferrari frustration must have been compounded by the sight of Felipe Massa securing a fine second place. At the same time, the performance of the Brazilian and his car can be seen to bode well for the Italian team for the balance of the season.

Alonso was quite stoical and positive afterwards, looking forward to Korea rather than dwelling on his disappointment at Suzuka.  The shrewd Spaniard must have known all along that one or more of the chasing pack would eventually encroach.  Ferrari team principal Stefano Domenicali indicated that he was conscious of the need for the team to improve the car.  They cannot just rely on a combination of Alonso's adroit driving and consistency, and good fortune.  If any complacency was there at Ferrari, it should have rapidly evaporated and turned into a state of mild alarm.

As for Massa, it seems that Suzuka, added to several other creditworthy recent performances, may have helped to secure his place with Ferrari for 2013.

McLaren were hampered this weekend by various factors, and will be concerned, but not surprised at Red Bull's restoration to pre-eminence. After the race Martin Whitmarsh was being realistic about the team's position vis-a-vis Red Bull. Whilst not exactly exuding optimism, he did say that they will keep fighting, trying and working. There is a sense that McLaren did all that they could in the circumstances.

There may be insinuations that McLaren have become "lost" again, but I don't subscribe to these notions.  It is more a case of Red Bull leaping ahead again.  McLaren cannot have regressed in the space of a few weeks. This situation is symptomatic of the fickleness and volatility of fortunes in modern Formula 1, where things are decidedly fluid.  Even some of the protagonists sometimes come across as bemused by the constant shifts in initiative and impetus.

It was an afternoon of mixed fortunes for the Sauber drivers.  Kamui Kobayashi appeared inspired in front of his home crowd, on a familiar circuit, and motivated and galvanised by rumours about the composition of the Sauber line-up in 2013, including whether he would be playing any part in it.  It was lovely and refreshing to see the emotional scenes on the podium and in the grandstands.

The departure of Sergio Perez from proceedings caused some consternation, but for me it was no big deal, just one of those things.  We did see during the race a few glimpses of the fluent and audacious talent which has persuaded McLaren to sign the Mexican for next season.

Of course, the other major topic of discussion was the continuing ordeal of Romain Grosjean, who collided with Mark Webber on the first lap.  This particular move was not as egregious as some of the other incidents in which he has been involved, but at the same time it will hardly have endeared him to his peers or the wider F1 community.

Grosjean's demeanour post-race spoke volumes.  He looked haunted, helpless and worried.  Despite his indiscretions, it is difficult not to feel some sympathy for a young man who is increasingly beleaguered. It is hard to say what can be done.  In previous eras, there was sometimes an unofficial group of "elder statesmen" drivers who might have had a cautionary word of advice in his ear, but that situation does not seem to exist any more.  Perhaps it is ultimately up to the team itself to address the problem?

Turning to the race itself, I would concur with the sentiments of those who, while desiring a more exciting race, revelled in the spectacle and challenge provided by the Suzuka circuit.  There is nothing else quite like it  in F1, Spa-Francorchamps apart.

It is ever more looking like a straight contest for the drivers' championship between Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel. Kimi Raikkonen's momentum has stalled, and he looks less capable of winning Grands Prix than a few races ago.  The shift induced by events at Suzuka make it possible that the title will be decided at the final race.  On the other hand, Vettel may just dominate the remainder of the season....

2012 Belgian Grand Prix Review

After the summer break, it was wonderful to resume the action at a proper circuit and venue.  There are many other great tracks on the calendar, but Spa has that extra special awe-inspiring sense of occasion and grandeur which lifts it comfortably clear of the mundane and the routine.  The setting, the history, the layout of the circuit and the feeling of foreboding induced by the weather all contribute to the tone and aura.

This year's event was no exception.  An almost effortless victory for McLaren's Jenson Button, and some vigorous and stimulating competition for the other points places.  Grand Prix racing for the purist, if such a thing is still possible in 2012.

However, much of what occurred has been overshadowed by the first-corner incident which eliminated Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso, Sergio Perez and Romain Grosjean, and led to the latter incurring a one-race suspension.

The unusual dynamics of the crash, and the trajectory and attitude of the cars involved, were particularly unsettling and sobering.  The design and aesthetic of open-top single-seater racing cars is undeniably part of their appeal, but this also constitutes a potential Achilles heel safety-wise, notwithstanding the advances seen in recent decades.  Alonso in particular was fortunate.

One of the enduring images of the weekend for me was the mildly surreal sight of Lewis Hamilton walking back down the pitlane, on his return from the scene of the accident, clutching an errant piece of bodywork or debris.  A forlorn figure, surrounded by a frenzy of activity amongst the other teams.

I thought on balance that Grosjean was culpable in triggering the accident, by moving across and making contact with Hamilton's McLaren.  Some may see the ban as slightly harsh, and part of the reasoning given was less than convincing, but it may serve as a deterrent and a warning to others. 

And so on to events in the aftermath of the first-corner altercation.  This was one of those displays which Button is capable of producing, when he's in a well-sorted machine.  Smooth, unruffled, metronomic almost. In fairness, the signs were there in qualifying.  Never really threatened today, his post-race demeanour was far removed from the near-morose figure of not that many races ago. Today he seemed calm, measured and good-humoured, but far from complacent. 

There will naturally have been joy at McLaren, tempered by Hamilton's early exit.  Another team quietly ecstatic at today's results would have been Red Bull.  The cards fell for them today, with the disappearance of substantial competition further up on the grid, but both team and drivers grafted hard to ensure that they capitalised on this "fortune".  They were hindered in these endeavours by a lack of grunt on the straights.

Sebastian Vettel, in particular, executed some clean, decisive and precise passing manoeuvres, and afterwards was clearly relieved and quietly satisfied at how the weekend had turned out, from less than promising origins.  The points standings realistically promise a challenge for another title, but he will have to work hard for any further success, taking account of the level of competition, and the constant need to employ strategic measures to circumvent deficiencies in the car.

The prospects of Kimi Raikkonen were much trumpeted in the build-up to the Spa weekend.  In the event he, like everyone else, could not hold a candle to the imperious Button, and was hampered by a lack of straightline speed, and poor early speed on soft tyres.  Thereafter, the Finn tussled manfully for his podium place, and delivered one of the moments of the race, if not the whole season, with his clinical but devastating move on Michael Schumacher at Eau Rouge.  Lotus must be a touch frustrated by their inability to finally ascend the top step of the podium, and the races are running out. 

On the subject of Schumacher, he produced an admirable performance to mark his 300th Grand Prix. Maybe he overheard some of the pre-race conjecture concerning his supposedly impending retirement!  Although handicapped in the latter stages by the lack of a sixth gear, he made a point of sorts, and was non-committal about his future afterwards.

After the race, much sympathy was directed towards Sauber.  They had seemed on the brink of a major breakthrough, by virtue of their grid positions and form in previous rounds, but this was abruptly negated because of the first-corner dramas. Granted, in the final analysis they may have struggled to keep Button in their sights, but podium places seemed a distinct possibility.  Through the disappointment, they must realise that their pace and consistency augurs well for the remainder of the campaign, and Sergio Perez alluded to this when he spoke after the race.

Mention must also be made of the composed and confident fourth-place finish achieved by Nico Hulkenberg in the Force India.  Comprehensively outshining his team-mate, and holding his own for long periods in the illustrious company of Schumacher, Raikkonen, Vettel et al, this display will have enhanced his reputation no end.

And now swiftly on to Monza, which promises to be an absolutely pulsating spectacle....

2012 Hungarian Grand Prix Review

Despite the small margin of victory, quite a commanding display from McLaren's Lewis Hamilton at the Hungaroring.  The other happy man will be Fernando Alonso, who despite finishing only fifth, actually increased his lead in the points standings. 

The race was not as processional or turgid as some which we have witnessed at this circuit in the past, but neither was it as exciting as most of the other Grands Prix of 2012.  The nature of the track dictated a lack of fluidity and dynamism in the running order, in relative terms, and the intense heat added another factor. Tyre matters seemed more pervasive than ever. Some teams and drivers will have felt that they possessed the pace, but were frustrated at their inability to make progress. Indeed, Force India appeared to be making this very point post-race.  This has been a recurring theme down the years at the Budapest venue. 

McLaren looked strong all weekend, this form having been hinted at in Germany.  Hamilton's smooth and trouble-free getaway from the line served as a good platform.  A partially botched first pit-stop could have proved costly for Lewis, but fortunately for him Romain Grosjean was affected similarly.  After that, in the opinion of some, Grosjean's relative inexperience in tyre management played a role.

Despite their failure to overhaul Hamilton, the Lotus team will have been pleased to have got two cars onto the podium, returning to the convincing form of some recent races. Kimi Raikkonen's strategy proved effectual, and there was a very spicy moment on lap 46 when the two team-mates locked horns at the first corner!  Once again, the Finn amply demonstrated that he has lost little of his old fire, in overcoming Grosjean, and taking second position.  Both Lotus drivers exuded some optimism after the race, and they must still feel confident of mounting the top step of the podium before the season is out.

There were a few other interesting sub-plots today.  It was nice to see Bruno Senna get a good solid points finish, and comprehensively outshine his highly-rated team-mate in the race.  This will hopefully give the Brazilian added confidence with which to tackle the remainder of the campaign.

Sauber showed some promise, but then sank into midfield, a fate which also befell both Force India and Mercedes.  For the latter, Michael Schumacher had a particularly miserable day, with problems on the parade lap, a penalty, and ultimately retirement from the race. 

We now have a break, before moving on to Spa, which could hardly contrast more with the Hungaroring.  For all the talk of a tightly contested championship, the fact remains that Alonso has established a lead, and bridging the gap to the Ferrari driver looks an increasingly tall order.  He can afford to drive tactically on occasion, keeping a watchful eye on the fortunes of his principal rivals. It looks unlikely that somebody will suddenly string a series of wins together.  Alonso looks in a very strong position, it must be said.

 

2012 Canadian Grand Prix Review

Not unexpectedly, we now have our seventh different winner in seven F1 races in 2012, following Lewis Hamilton's fine victory in Montreal.  Some observers have asserted that the race was slow to "get going", but I found it very interesting, as there was a constant sense that things would liven up once the tyre strategies unravelled.  Sure enough, we had a dramatic closing phase to proceedings, with some drivers charging on new tyres, others benefitting from efficient tyre conservation, and some going backwards on worn rubber.

One of the things which struck me watching the race was how Hamilton's positive outlook, patience and perserverance paid handsome dividends. His racing instincts are as sharp as ever, but this has been tempered with good sense, and he seems to be coping with the much-documented tyre situation as well as anybody on the grid. He was even diplomatic and magnanimous after the race, not wishing to apportion blame for a mildly botched tyre change.  He must feel that momentum is on his side, and this was no time to rock the boat.  The bigger picture is the priority, and at present it looks distinctly rosy.

There is a temptation to over-analyse these things, and draw facile conclusions, but the "body language" of Hamilton's car was very exuberant yesterday, indicative of a man truly enjoying his work, and relishing the task. He was even mature enough to let the car do the work at times in the closing laps, rather than force the issue unnecessarily; the race was coming to him, and he did not need to take risks.

Apart from Hamilton's victory, much of the attention will have been commanded by Romain Grosjean and Sergio Perez, two of Formula 1's "comingmen".  They both made a one-stop strategy work effectively, and neither man will have done his reputation any harm.

Elsewhere, there were no massive surprises in the results, save for the continuing tribulations of Jenson Button, who was anonymous again,and afterwards made more comments to the effect that he remains confused by his lack of performance. His predicament will be made all the more acute as his team-mate's ascendancy gathers pace.

Although in the end Ferrari did not score as many points as expected in Canada, they will be in good heart, as the car continues to improve. Even allowing for the car's progression, Fernando Alonso drove another classy race.  Felipe Massa is looking more comfortable and assertive, although his race was marred slightly by a spin. 

There were others in yesterday's race, notably Mark Webber and Nico Rosberg, who appeared to do little wrong, and raced capably and tenaciously, but who did not feature at the very sharp end.  As we are becoming used to saying, the margins are very slender in F1 this year!

So who will be the eight different winner of 2012?  Well, the Lotus team continue to knock on the door, and Valencia promises to be wide-open and unpredictable, surely giving them an opportunity. Sauber's straightline speed is a real asset, although this may make its presence felt at the faster circuits later in the season.

Whatever happens, it looks like being enjoyable viewing!

2012 Bahrain Grand Prix Review

Many of the column inches during the 2012 F1 season have centred on the perceived fall from grace of the Red Bull team. However, after today's impressive victory for Sebastian Vettel, they may be tempted to utter the time-honoured phrase "crisis, what crisis?".  Vettel now sits atop the standings....

Despite a spirited challenge from Kimi Raikkonen's Lotus, this was a composed display by the reigning champion, building on his pole position. In addition, and significantly perhaps, the German overshadowed his team-mate Mark Webber for most of the weekend.  Vettel's performance had that stamp of calm and authority that one expects from a true champion.

Another major talking point arising from the race was the continuing excellent form of the Lotus team. Right from the start of the season, their car has looked nimble, stable and fleet, and there is a lean and lithe feel about the team generally.  The drivers are capitalising ably on the machine's responsiveness and zip. It is worth noting its straightline speed, too.

Even allowing for his credentials and pedigree, Romain Grosjean continues to be a revelation, confident and assertive, and far from over-awed in the illustrious company near the head of the field. This spur of competition is pushing Kimi Raikkonen along.  The Finn looks perfectly at home on his F1 return, that fluid and pacey style very much to the fore.  Even though he admitted afterwards that he had failed when presented with his one big opportunity to overtake Vettel, at least he was in a position to attempt that manoeuvre!

To say the least, McLaren had a frustrating and problematic race, with more sloppy pit-stops, and culminating in Jenson Button's mechanical problems. It would be surprising if the McLaren hierarchy allowed this situation, intolerable for such a polished outfit, to persist. Despite the car's potential, and the points already registered, the team has looked uncharacteristically ragged and untidy at times in 2012. Lewis Hamilton has suffered from all this, but has managed to amass a healthy tally of points.

Another topic which jumped out at me today was the one raised by Michael Schumacher about the extent to which tyres, and the requirement of the drivers to manage tham, is influencing the racing. I suspect that many fans would counter that the tyre situation is at least partly responsible for the close and exciting racing which we are witnessing, and that Schumacher's rather indignant remarks smack of sour grapes.

From a purist's point of view, there would be concern if it were felt that the outcome of every single Grand Prix was being determined largely by tyre wear, distorting the efforts of teams and drivers, and discrediting the sport. However, I don't think that we have reached that stage yet, and the time for a more balanced judgement on this will come later in the season.  It will be interesting to see how many other drivers publicly give vent to their feelings about the burdens being imposed on them by tyre concerns.

Whatever the merits of his argument, it is interesting to see Schumacher speaking out like this. In the past, it can be argued that he did not always speak his mind as readily as would be expected from the sport's leading personality.  Today's candid comments looked to me like those of an elder statesman figure, not constrained by some of the pressures of his earlier career, and not afraid to look at the big picture, and be outspoken about matters which genuinely perturb him.

The other Mercedes driver had an adventurous race today, being involved in a couple of contentious incidents. Over-confidence in the wake of China, or frustration at not being in a position to live up to expectations, post-Shanghai?

It seems that Ferrari were back in a position more representative of their car's potential, having to scrap for every position.  Both drivers tried manfully, and the spirit shown by Felipe Massa will have provided at least some encouragement.

A word of praise also for Paul di Resta, who achieved a fine result, based on a courageous strategy and some intelligent racing.  His drive was reminiscent of many of those which he delivered in 2011.

A crucial period in the season now awaits us.  A three week break before Barcelona, and interestingly, a testing session at Mugello. Red Bull may feel that they have something to build on now, and some pundits are pointing to Catalunya as a "Red Bull track".  In the past, the dawn of the European season has sometimes seen a sea change in form, but this time there appear to be too many variables and imponderables in place.

Whatever happens, it looks like being interesting....