It is often foolish to read too much into the outcome of the first race of the season, and this weekend's event in Sepang should provide us with additional pointers.
For me, one of the most telling features of the post-Melbourne media maelstrom has been the self-assuredness being evinced by McLaren personnel. They have expressed confidence that their car will perform capably on all circuits, thereby refuting some of the theories that McLaren's advantage in Australia was down partially to the nature of the circuit, and the MP4-27's compatibility with it.
Of course, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating, and other teams may contend that the Albert Park track masked the true potential of their own machines, and flattered others. However, it seems reasonably clear that the onus is on McLaren's rivals to improve, rather than relying on the Woking-based equipe to fall from grace or suddenly become "lost" technically.
These days, F1 is too complex, some would say clinical, to allow for teams to be freakishly quick and dominant at the beginning of a season, and then fall away precipitately. Examples of this would be Shadow in 1975 and Ligier in 1979. The peculiar circumstances, and technical sweet-spots are simply not there anymore. Rather, in modern times progress in Grand Prix racing is more measured in small increments rather than wild oscillations. Hence McLaren's small but tangible advantage, and the measures needed by the competition to bridge that gap.
My hunch is that we may even have to wait until the Spanish Grand Prix for any sort of demonstrable pecking order to reveal itself, and even then we can expect form to be quite volatile, particularly amongst the "middle order" of the field.
Despite McLaren's impressive display in the opening race, Red Bull in particular are not exuding any signs of panic or concern, confident that they are there or thereabouts, and that some fine-tuning, hard work, and a bit of luck, will remedy matters. Expect Red Bull to be more prominent this weekend, and Mark Webber to be less peripheral than he was on home turf.
Prospects amongst the other teams fancied pre-season are decidedly less certain. Notwithstanding Alonso's determined drive Down Under, there is clearly still disquiet at Ferrari. Changes to the car are to be anticipated, and the team's likely form in Malaysia is difficult to foretell with any degree of confidence.
A team which failed to totally convince in Melbourne was Mercedes, the jury still being very much out on their prospective race form. They need to demonstrate that they can consistently challenge the "big two". Or are they destined to remain in a kind of limbo, occasionally troubling the front, but just as regularly being subsumed into the pack behind? It is premature to judge, but Malaysia may offer up some additional clues on this score.
With luck, we will be treated at Sepang to the same type of spectacle in the midfield to which we were witness in Australia. This should involve Force India, Sauber, Williams, Lotus and possibly others. One of these teams could even intrude into the higher echelons, capitalising on any frailties at Ferrari or Mercedes.
Returning to McLaren, another sub-text in Malaysia should revolve around the Button/Hamilton dynamic, which will be interesting to behold. Expect some kind of reaction from Hamilton, who seemed somewhat taken aback by his colleague's resolute race performance at Albert Park. Happily, it is quite clear that the two of them will be allowed to race each other, subject to the usual provisos about civility and overall team welfare.
The Sepang track does not exactly luxuriate in a reputation for throwing up pulsating F1 races. Not only is there a chance that the nature of the circuit will supply us with a truer barometer of form, but this may also spread the cars out. I hope that I am proved wrong in this, and it may be that the pre-season feelings of some pundits will be further realised, in a tightly contested event. Some rain, as ever, would spice things up appreciably.
My prediction? Well, I won't make a precise one, other than to say that McLaren and Red Bull could be difficult to separate this time around.
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