Well, the serious pre-season testing activity has thus been concluded, and the journey to Melbourne beckons.
Several respected and learned observers are of the opinion that 2012 will be a very closely contested season. For a change, these bold statements stand up to scrutiny, and have some foundation based in what we have seen and deduced.
Yes, the times are close and the overall running order volatile, but the very top echelon still consists of Red Bull and McLaren, when all is said and done. Mercedes are very probably next in line, but Ferrari is the subject of too many imponderables for comfort.
Some of the midfield teams, such as Force India, Sauber and Lotus have been very assertive during the recent tests, but they need to back up these flourishes with cold hard consistent form when it really matters. Whilst it is awkward to judge and precisely quantify, the form of these three teams in particular appears slightly more than a mere flash in the pan, but of course we do not know for sure. Thank goodness that the time for sandbagging and deception will soon be over!
By some measures, Red Bull and McLaren are very close. The birth of the new McLaren creation has been slightly more stable and comfortable than that of their closest rivals, and the Woking-based outfit has given the impression of quiet diligence and focus, without over-ebullience.
The Red Bull has encountered the odd glitch, but is demonstrably swift. The team is by no means invincible or infallible, judging by the tests. When assessing these things,it is tempting to attach excessive importance and significance to the merest weakness or minor occurrence.
Ferrari have been busying themselves seeking to dampen and manage expectations, and throughout these tests they have exuded a certain irritability and unease, if not anxiety. Could they be swamped by the eager and ambitious midfield pack? That question remains to be answered. There is, though, historical precedent for teams seemingly beset by maladies suddenly finding that everything falls into place when the season proper commences. The reverse often happens to those whose preparations have gone swimmingly.
Some of us are frankly glad that the testing is over, and that things from now on can be taken at face value. Let competition commence!
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