After a most stimulating and entertaining beginning to the 2012 season, Formula 1's pivotal European season commences in Barcelona this weekend. The opening batch of "fly-away" races have undoubtedly whetted the appetite for the competition to come.
The Red Bull team will approach the race in Spain in good heart after their upturn in fortunes in Bahrain. Despite Vettel's victory there, there was little suggestion of the old invincibility or any permanence to this state of affairs. Some might argue that the results in Bahrain owed at least something to the shortcomings and errors of others.
McLaren's display in the last race was shambolic, and quite out of character. Some of the wounds were self-inflicted, and unforced errors are likely to be costly in this ultra-competitive season. They seem to have taken some steps to address the failings shown last time out, and have some upgrades coming on stream in Spain. The track in Barcelona has a reputation for favouring good, all-round cars, and this should stand McLaren in good stead this weekend. The MP4-27 has not become a bad car overnight.
The Mugello test, not surprisingly, was largely inconclusive. The form of Ferrari is still uncertain and hard to predict, with some modifications not emerging until the team arrives in Barcelona. Fernando Alonso will be hoping for some improvement for his home Grand Prix. There is a danger that the competition could disappear over the horizon.
All things being equal, we should expect Lotus, Sauber and Mercedes to continue their role as realistic challengers for victory. Of these, Lotus in particular seem to be doing all the right things, with a positive approach, and a pair of drivers who are feeding off and motivating each other. They now need to demonstrate that they are capable of crossing that invisible barrier which separates them from becoming winners in 2012....
Mercedes have still yet to be totally convincing in race trim, but appear to be vaguely moving in the right direction. Sauber will also be hoping to notch up more consistent race results.
The subject of tyres was very much a hot topic of conversation after Bahrain, prompted largely by Michael Schumacher's post-race remarks. The debate on tyres has not quite escalated in the way that Schumacher may have hoped, with some F1 figures appearing to offer qualified support for Pirelli, but it provides an interesting sub-plot, and the controversy may well re-ignite in Spain, if tyre wear continues to play a central role in the performance of teams and the outcome of the race.
Occasionally in the past, what appeared to be a wide-open season has been transformed by a sudden technical breakthrough or sweet-spot being discovered by a competing team, but 2012 does not seem to conform to that description. All the available evidence points to more of what we have been treated to in the first four races.
Five different winners in the first five Grands Prix? Don't rule it out.....
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