2014 World Cup Draw

I often think that the draw for football's World Cup Finals has more suspense and excitement about it than the tournament itself. The prolonged and tedious nature of the preliminaries and ceremonies, the esoteric and incomprehensible draw itself, and the conspiracy theories and forebodings of doom which customarily follow the conclusion of the proceedings.

Mercifully, today's draw in Brazil seemed to go by quickly, and it has thrown up some intriguing match-ups for the group stages, and possibilities for the later stages. As the draw unfolded, though, my over-riding sentiment was that the draw felt a little unbalanced, with some groups packed with strong teams, and others looking weak, at least on paper. The seedings undoubtedly contributed to this state of affairs, but at least it has spiced things up;for example, Switzerland now look like a good bet to reach the quarter-finals...

Firstly, England have been handed a very arduous group, being drawn against Uruguay, Costa Rica and Italy.  As England's first match is against Italy, some hopes might be pinned on the Azzurri making their traditionally sluggish beginning to a major tournament! The Uruguayans are brimming with talent and confidence, and Costa Rica will in theory be favoured by factors of climate and support.  In fairness, England were probably "due" a tough draw, having been given some comparatively easy tasks in recent tournaments, not always capitalizing on them.

There will be a scramble to finish on top of Group B, in order to avoid the likelihood of facing Brazil in the second round. The hosts facing the Netherlands at that stage would be a very enticing prospect, although the talented Chileans should not be under-estimated.  I am assuming here that Spain will top Group B, but I wonder whether by next summer the World and European champions will be even further past their peak....

Groups C and E both look quite even, and a case can be made for almost all of the countries in those groups qualifying for the knock-out phase.  Bosnia-Herzegovina must have a good chance of emerging as second in Group F, assuming that Argentina finish in first place there.

I have taken the liberty of doing some quick calculations, to see who is most likely to progress to the latter stages of the tournament. The upshot was a semi-final line up of Brazil v Germany and Spain v Argentina. Hardly earth-shattering, I know, but the reality of World Cups rarely conforms to deliberations conducted on a cold evening during the previous December. The vagaries of form, climate, injuries and luck will all play a part.....